You can pretty much count out Javier Bardem and Geoffrey Rush from the start -- it's not their race. The best bets are Russell Crowe and Tom Hanks, but Ed Harris' performance in Pollock could pull an upset. The deciding factor: Hanks has won so many times, it's becoming predictable. Crowe couldn't be hotter in Hollywood right now, bad boy or not.
Pick: Russell Crowe.

The only way Julia Roberts will not win is if Academy members figure she's a lock, and vote for the underdogs. Joan Allen and Juliette Binoche shouldn't even bother writing acceptance speeches, not this year. If there's an upset, most likely it will be Ellen Burstyn, whose performance drew critical raves. If the bleak subject matter of Requiem For A Dream hurts Burstyn, Laura Linney might have the edge for her terriffic performance in You Can Count On Me.
Pick: Julia Roberts.

This race comes down to two actors, Benicio del Toro and Albert Finney. Any upset would be highly unlikely, but my vote would be for Dafoe, who vanished into his character for Shadow of a Vampire. (Personally, I'd love to see Phoenix win, but I don't think he has a chance, which is terribly vexing.) In his favor, Albert Finney had been nominated five times and never won -- which may make voters want to toss the award his way. Plus, Finney won the Best Supporting Actor award from SAG, which is usually a good Oscar predictor. However, del Toro's performance gained more critical recognition, and he won this year's Best Lead Actor SAG award for his role in Traffic, which would tip the scales in his favor.
Pick: Benicio del Toro.

In this category, Kate Hudson won the Golden Globe. Judi Dench won the SAG award. This is not right. This is criminal. There is no way Hudson out-performed her Almost Famous co-star, Frances McDormand! Does Dench deserve an award just for showing up? Come on, people! This one will be a nail-biter. Hollywood insiders predict that Marcia Gay Harden will finally get some long overdue recognition, so she's our pick. You may want to vote your heart on this one, however. It's far from certain.
Pick: Marcia Gay Harden.

For starters, there's some major snickering going on about Chocolat, Miramax's token Oscar film this year. The fact that IT got a nomination instead of the far superior Almost Famous has raised a few eyebrows. Erin Brockovich earned its nomination, but it's been out of theaters a long time. Voters may feel that giving Julia the Best Actress award will reward the film sufficiently. Let's face it, the Academy is not likely to give a subtitled film this honor, especially since Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon is basically a lock for Best Foreign Film. That leaves Traffic and Gladiator. Gladiator was by far easier on the eyes than the jarring Traffic , and Oscar voters LOVE big, sweeping epics, so look for a win here.
Pick: Gladiator.

Steven Soderbergh has been nominated TWICE in this category, so unless a vote split causes an upset, it looks like he'll be taking Oscar home, most likely for Traffic, which displayed a more prominent directorial style. If there is a split, Ang Lee will most likely come out the winner. Hollywood loves his ability to tackle wildly different genres while giving them a flowing and beautiful style. Stephen Daldry and Ridley Scott are long shots.
Pick: Steven Soderbergh.

This one is like shooting fish in a barrel. Which one have YOU heard of? Hmmm... Look for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to walk away with an easy win here.
Pick: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon.

It wasn't the dialogue of Gladiator that made it great, and many people couldn't even UNDERSTAND what the characters in Billy Elliot were saying, so you can probably count those out. Once again, the distant release of Erin Brockovich hurts its chances, which brings us to the strong contenders, Almost Famous and You Can Count On Me. Both were fantastic screenplays that can't be rewarded with Best Picture Oscars. My vote goes to You Can Count On Me, because Cameron Crowe's charmed life seems like its own reward, no?
Pick: You Can Count On Me.

Chocolat and Crouching Tiger are the underdogs here. O Brother Where Art Thou? probably lost a lot of votes by being a little TOO clever with the Ulysses references. This is one of the awards that I think will be influenced by marketing, so I'm picking the re-released-for-Oscar-consideration Wonder Boys over the superior Traffic. It will be very close, but, hey, I'm a cynic.
Pick: Wonder Boys.